It is hard to say who was more impressive in their respective second win between Gonzaga and Purdue. The Zags absolutely blew Kansas out of the water in the second half and Purdue dropped a cool 106 points on Utah State. Let’s call it a wash at this point.
The Zags have already faced off against Purdue this year, and it didn’t go too well, but it also wasn’t half bad as well. A Gonzaga team that was clearly worse than it is now kept pace with Purdue for the first 20 minutes, but as many of us remember, could not hit the broad side of a barn from long range and ultimately lost by a rather respectable 10 points.
That was months ago. So before you let the No. 1 seeding of Purdue scare you, just know that Gonzaga has been playing much better as of late. Since February 1 (according to barttovik.com), the Zags have trotted out the nation’s second-best offense. We saw it in action on Saturday. In fact, since February 1, Gonzaga is ranked No. 7 by the same stat set, two spots higher than Purdue.
By no means is Gonzaga churning through the NCAA Tournament like the UConn Huskies did last year on their way to the title, but outside of a WCC Tournament Championship slip-up against Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga has been playing exactly like the team most of us are used to over the past decade.
The odds are still against the Zags, but another Elite 8 appearance is not out of the question whatsoever. A lot just has to go right.
The Zach Edey conundrum
This might be shocking to hear, but Gonzaga’s best bet for a victory is to do as much damage as possible when Edey is not on the floor. Per Hoop-explorer.com, the splits are night and day, even more severe than they were for Kansas without Hunter Dickinson or Kevin McCullar Jr.
- Zach Edey On – AdjO: 135.3 (1), AdjD: 93.4 (8)
- Zach Edey Off – AdjO: 103.7 (231), AdjD: 101.7 (81)
If your idea is to say cool: Just charge at Edey and make him foul. Well, that is not how this works. Edey doesn’t foul, basically ever. That cannot be an expectation going in. Rather, Gonzaga needs to contain for as long as it can and then pounce when the time is right.
Gonzaga has to hit outside shots
The first time around against Purdue, there are two separate but related things that helped doom Gonzaga: They shot a boatload of three-pointers (32, nearly half of their total field goal attempts) and hit just six of them, good for 18.8 percent and the fourth-lowest total on the year.
Now, when a team faces a team with a player like Purdue, it is inevitable to huck up a few more outside shots because the post is that much harder to score in. However, none of that matters if, like Gonzaga, you can’t make one to save your life.
Since February 1, however, Gonzaga is hitting 41.3 percent of their three-point attempts.
Let the offense cook
Ryan Nembhard set the Gonzaga single-season record for assists in a year and taking a look at his totals from the past five games, that shouldn’t be much of a surprise: 12, 9, 11, 12, 10.
When the Zags are going, they are really hard to beat. Just ask Kansas. The Jayhawks were hanging tough until Gonzaga surgically sliced and diced them to tiny pieces in the second half, outscoring 46-24, including the garbage time minutes.
Gonzaga did major damage to Kansas because of Hunter Dickinson’s woeful pick and roll defense combined with Bill Self’s refusal to try any other scheme.
Edey is a good basketball player but he is laterally as quick as drying cement and that is the key to beating him: making him move off his mountain defending the post. There is a good reason that Matt Painter tells him to go stand under the hoop for every defensive possession. The Gonzaga bigs need to be crafty and quick, because that will put Purdue on its heels.
Gonzaga wins if
They play like they did in the second half against Kansas for the full 40. Honestly, if the offense is rolling like that, I don’t think anyone has a real shot at stopping them. Otherwise, Gonzaga needs to accomplish a whole load of easier said than done things: Keep it close, don’t get buried by Purdue’s three-point shooting, do your best to contain Edey but not get majorly burned by the role players, on and on and on.
In short, pull the upset. This is March Madness. Even with how Gonzaga has played as of late, Purdue is the better team, but the better team doesn’t always win the game.
Purdue wins if
They just play an normal Purdue game. Let’s be clear here: As of typing this sentence, Purdue’s AdjEM in KenPom is 30.60 and Gonzaga’s is 23.64. That is a big spread, but it also includes the entire season. Gonzaga is playing better than that 23.64 as of late, but Purdue is still the better team, no questions asked.