Only a fool bets against the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the first round of the NCAA Tournament, and the Zags made fools of a lot of national writers after easily dispatching the McNeese Cowboys and heading to the second round for the 15th-consecutive NCAA Tournament. Let that stat sink in because it is absolutely nuts.
On a quick turnaround, the Zags will face off against the once mighty Jayhawks, who barely survived Samford’s second half push to advance to the second round. It is just the third time the two major programs have met, and despite Kansas having the higher seed, I would argue this is Gonzaga’s game to lose.
Kansas is beat up in a real bad way
When Bill Self announced that Kevin McCullar Jr. would miss the NCAA Tournament, the Jayhawks went from arguably the best starting five in the nation to an incredibly beatable team.
Per Hoop-explorer.com, the splits for when McCullar is on and off the floor are absolutely brutal.
- AdjO On: 119.3 (22), AdjD On: 93.4 (9)
- AdjO Off: 108.7 (142), AdjD Off: 100. 8 (70)
It doesn’t get any better for Kansas when its other star player Hunter Dickinson is on the bench.
- AdjO On: 118.8 (28), AjdD On: 93.7 (9)
- AdjO Off: 106.4 (176), AdjD Off: 102.3 (99)
The Zags are by no means a deep team, but the Kansas rotation makes Gonzaga looked like a stacked roster. If Kansas were fully healthy, I’m probably give Kansas the edge as thoroughly as possible. Kansas is not, however, and that is why they are a four seed.
Kansas does not generate a lot of second-chance opportunities
The Jayhawks are not a good offensive rebounding team. They are ranked No. 292 in the nation with an OR% of 25.3. Gonzaga is a pretty decent defensive rebounding team and the lack of an elite offensive rebounder for Kansas means they are often a one possession and done kind of team.
Of course, their offense can score. They lead the in assists per field goal made, but since they aren’t a super prolific three-point shooting team, more often than not, they are chipping in two points.
And with that, it begs the first of two questions: Can Kansas’ offense keep up with Gonzaga’s?
Can the Kansas defense hold up?
This is going to be the biggest question of the matchup. Part of the issue with Kansas No. 11 defensive ranking on KenPom is that it is from the entire season and McCullar is no longer there. Hunter Dickinson is obviously still a threat, but this is a team that is limping right now, not surging. Since February 24, Kansas’ defense ranks No. 25. Great, but not elite.
Gonzaga’s offense was fantastic in their opening round win over McNeese. They logged 22 assists on 31 field goals and all the dudes were feeling it from three-point range.
If the three-point barrage continues, which it very well could against Kansas, whose defense, like McNeese’s, virtually dares you to hit it from outside, Gonzaga could easily build up enough of a lead to hold it for the rest of the game.
Gonzaga wins if
They play as well as they did last night. Obviously, easier said than done because even a shortened Kansas squad is still better than McNeese. The Zags just flat out looked better for the full 40 minutes than Kansas did in the first round.
If the threes are coming down early, Kansas is just not a team that is necessarily built to go on a lot of runs. Gonzaga has not lost a game this season in which they’ve hit at least seven threes.
Kansas wins if
The Zags struggle to hit shots from outside and the defense can grind Gonzaga down from inside the arc. The two-point defense, thanks to Dickinson, is strong. If the Jayhawks can ride that and the Zags go cold from oustide, something that has happened more often than not this season, this becomes the Jayhawks game to lose.
I completely agree with your assessment. However, what Kansas does have is the ability to keep pace with the Zags up and down the boards.
This game is a game changer for our Zags when they win. It bulks up the Zags confidence and builds on the momentum that the Zags have achieved thus far. Gonzaga has been peaking at just the right time. The bench is bringing in a solid performance and that is where they win.