Gonzaga vs. UCLA game preview: For the love of god win a big game

The Gonzaga Bulldogs close out the non-conference schedule with one last opportunity for a resume-boosting win as they take on the UCLA Bruins on Saturday, at 1:00 pm, on FOX.

The Zags have some good non-conference wins as they head into WCC play, but have missed very winnable opportunities against the likes of UConn and Kentucky. There is no such thing as a must-win game in December in college hoops, but if Gonzaga wants to secure anything resemble a top two seed, they cannot afford another Quad 1 loss.

UCLA is almost in the same boat as Gonzaga. The Bruins are analytical darlings at No. 17 in KenPom, but they’ve had mixed results. Mick Cronin mostly scheduled a non-conference slate that rated at the bottom of the barrel. The Bruins lost to both New Mexico and North Carolina at neutral sites, but took down both Oregon (conference) and Arizona for quality wins so far.

Here are a few things to watch for the game:

It’ll be Gonzaga’s offense vs. UCLA’s defense

The Zags’ offense ranks No. 3 at the moment and UCLA’s defense ranks No. 4. That is your major storyline. If Gonzaga wins, they let their theoretically elite-level offense dictate the pace of play, which is exactly what has not happened in games against West Virginia, Kentucky, and UConn. If UCLA wins, its defense got the upper hand and the offense scraped together enough points to muster the win.

Gonzaga has demonstrated that ability against good defenses (see the road win over San Diego State), but UCLA’s defense will be the best the Zags have faced all season.

Ryan Nembhard must cut down on his turnovers

To start the season, there was a lot to be made out of his start of the season. Nembhard was a high-efficiency assist machine that refused to turn the ball over. In his two most recent games, against the likes of Nicholls and Bucknell, Nembhard doled out 19 assists, but also turned the ball over nine times.

For context, prior to those two games, Nembhard had 17 total turnovers in 10 games. He raised his turnovers per game by 0.5 in just two games, to a still very respectable 2.2 per game.

The reason this all matters: UCLA’s defense is oriented around turnovers. The Bruins’ defense owns the nation’s-highest TO% at 26.9.

I would posit that if Nembhard finishes this game with just one or two turnovers, Gonzaga probably wins. However, if he coughs it up five times, UCLA is going to win. The Bruins’ offense doesn’t generate points like Gonzaga’s does. That is what its defense is for.

Can Gonzaga’s two-point defense hold?

The Zags are currently posting their worst two-point defensive percentage since 2016. Unfortunately, this plays into UCLA’s hand. The Bruins are not a team that attempt a lot of threes, with over half of their points coming from inside the arc.

If the Zags’ interior defense melts down like it did in the second half against Kentucky, this becomes UCLA’s game to lose. The Bruins aren’t uber-efficient in the interior. Their 2P% of 54.6 ranks just 91st in the country. However, we have watched the Zags struggle with this all season.

Graham Ike needs more of last week

In Gonzaga’s three losses this season, Graham Ike has been a meaningful part of just the first 20 minutes of the Kentucky game. The second half of that game, he largely disappeared and he completely no-showed against West Virginia and UConn.

In Gonzaga’s two games prior to the holiday break, Ike was what the Gonzaga offense needs him to be–25 and 20 points in 20 and 18 minutes, respectively.

If he struggles again, there is a very real question to be made about what this coaching staff is doing in search of wins. According to Evan Miya’s site, Gonzaga’s general starting rotation hasn’t been their most efficient. Granted, the starting rotation theoretically also faces the toughest competition. However, the two most efficient lineups Gonzaga has thrown out with somewhat consistency this season do not feature Ike.

The narrative that Ike needs to be taken out of the starting rotation might be a bit overblown, but he also needs to actually demonstrate this season why he deserves to be in it. This story largely has legs because of Ike’s own repeated MIA performances this season.

Score prediction

Despite what appears to be largely a negative take on why UCLA is a bad matchup for Gonzaga, the Zags have done what it takes to defeat UCLA as of late. Gonzaga has won the past four matchups, needing a hail mary Jalen Suggs heave and a beyond deep Julian Strawther three in the NCAA Tournament for two of the wins.

The game will probably be close again and hopefully the Zags won’t need a last-second shot to pull off the win. I think they still get the dub for the fifth-straight time, 70-65. UCLA’s defense is good, but this is a Mick Cronin coached team which means by default the offense is not. Despite Gonzaga’s interior defensive issues, overall, the metrics are good.

Kentucky owns a top 10 offense. UConn’s is No. 2. Realistically, the only time the Gonzaga defense has legitimately slipped up this season is against West Virginia. I think the Gonzaga defense holds and the offense does enough to get the win.