For years, Gonzaga was long known as Guard U. Recently, that has transitioned to a squad that was completely dominant in the post. From 2013-2024, Gonzaga posted a top 10 2P% every year except for 2016.
That made sense. The Zags featured a rotating class of incredibly efficient post players, such as Domantas Sabonis, Johnathan Williams, Przemek Karnowski, Brandon Clarke, Filip Petrusev, Drew Timme, and Chet Holmgren. You might recognize a lot of NBA players in there.
Last year, the likes of Graham Ike, Anton Watson, and the midrange game of Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman continued that charge.
So far, this year, something has changed, ever so slightly. In a game in which every possession matters, slight percentage points take on a lot of meaning. For the Zags, this year, they have the unfortunate double whammy–Gonzaga is currently posting its lowest 2P% (56.2) on offense since 2016 combined with its worst defensive 2P% (52.3) in the KenPom era.
The two-pointer takes on more importance because Gonzaga does not shoot the three
On offense, this is the main reason why not shooting as well from two makes a difference. It isn’t that Gonzaga hasn’t had shooters, but historically, modern-day Gonzaga has never been an offense that relied on the three-point shot.
This year, three-pointers account for 34.5 percent of the Zags overall field goal attempts, good for No. 285 in the country. For reference North Dakota State, the most prolific three-point shooting team in the nation, sits at 55 percent. Loyola Chicago, ranked at No. 182 in the nation, sits at 39.6 percent.
Currently, assuming Gonzaga’s tempo of 69.8 possessions per game, with their averages they will score 24.5 points from three and 51.4 from two.
Here is what the number of points generated from two would look like with Gonzaga’s tempo over the past few years.
| Year | 2P% | Points from two with 2025 tempo |
| 2025 | 56.2 | 51.4 |
| 2024 | 58.3 | 53.3 |
| 2023 | 58.1 | 53.1 |
| 2022 | 60.4 | 55.2 |
| 2021 | 63.9 | 58.4 |
Two points per game doesn’t seem like too big of a deal. Four points per game is starting to look like it. An additional seven points per game would be a dream.
Now compound that problem with Gonzaga’s worst 2P% defense in forever
The Zags’ opponents are shooting just 24.5 percent from three this season, the lowest percentage in the country. My guess is that is a mark that won’t be staying that low for long.
According to the stats, Gonzaga’s 2P% defense of 52.3 results in 44.2 points considering two-point shots make up 60.6 percent of opponents’ attempts. Here is that same table from above with the defensive 2P% plugged in.
| Year | Defensive 2P% | Points from two with 2025 temp |
| 2025 | 52.3 | 44.2 |
| 2024 | 45.1 | 38.1 |
| 2023 | 50.6 | 42.8 |
| 2022 | 41.8 | 35.3 |
| 2021 | 47 | 39.8 |
That makes a total swing of six points from last year and four points from 2023. The gaps are even more severe in 2022 and 2021, which, go figure, the Zags were the No. 1 team in KenPom.
Six extra points is probably a win against UConn. It is definitely a win against Kentucky. Understandably, just because the stats say so doesn’t mean Gonzaga would score that extra six points each game. These percentages aren’t static throughout the season after all.
However, in a game that is has a single-digit spread, six points goes a rather long ways. All it means for right now is that until Gonzaga can be more efficient from two on offense and defend the two better on defense, they have that much less room for error. When a game is coming down to one possession, a team needs all the room for error it can get.