The Gonzaga Bulldogs head to hell, California to face the Saint Mary’s Gaels in a game that is a much-needed win for both teams.
For Gonzaga, it would be another big boost to their resume that is littered with more missed opportunities than seized. For the Gaels, once again, it would be the crowning jewel. Currently, Saint Mary’s best win is over a No. 67 ranked USC team at a neutral site.
Here are a few key points I will be watching for:
Has Gonzaga turned the corner enough?
A couple of weeks ago, I posted this on BlueSky:
Gonzaga, of course, shit the bed immediately before turning it around last week. Now that the dust has settled, things are a bit closer in conference play.
- Gonzaga WCC ORtg: 128.6, DRtg: 103.9
- Saint Mary’s WCC ORtg: 125.4, DRtg: 88.8
Gonzaga has rightfully reclaimed the throne on offense, but Saint Mary’s defense is still stripping the pants off the Zags.
We saw an improved defensive effort against Portland and Oregon State. They’ll need that, plus more, against Saint Mary’s because the Gaels’ defense is going to give Gonzaga many more fits than the Pilots or Beavers did.
Going into this game, Gonzaga needs to treat itself and think of itself as the underdog. They may be higher ranked on the season overall in all the metrics, but that isn’t the case for the month of January. Per Barttorvik, Saint Mary’s has been ranked No. 8 and Gonzaga No. 22 for the past 30 days.
Limit Saint Mary’s on the offensive glass
This is very much an easier said than done idea. The Gaels are the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country. Mitchell Saxan is the third best offensive rebounding player in the country. If the Gael’s miss a shot, they get that rebound 41.6 percent of the time (!!!).
And every time that happens, that means we get another full 30 seconds of Saint Mary’s basketball aka me gouging my eyes out with a dull spoon. The Gaels proficiency on the offensive glass is what makes the squad so dangerous. They just end up with a lot more opportunities.
However, take those extra possessions away and you aren’t looking at the scariest offense. The Gaels shoot 51.7 percent from two and 34.8 percent from three, good for No. 157 and No. 109 in the country, respectively.
Graham Ike is an elite defensive rebounder. Ben Gregg and Michael Ajayi can more than hold their own. All three need to crash the boards like their lives depend on it.
Michael Ajayi as the x-factor
Ajayi hasn’t had the best success against Saint Mary’s in his career. Last season at Pepperdine, he scored a total of 18 points in 74 minutes off of 5-for-21 shooting.
In a new (and infinitely better offense) Ajayi has taken quite a bit of time to find his role. After dropping 14 in the loss to UConn, he scored a total of 11 points over his next 5 games. He dropped 15 on LMU and followed that up with six over his next four games.
Finally, Ajayi put up consecutive good games, scoring 20 against Portland and 15 against Oregon State. In the past two games, Ajayi has hungrily hunted for his shot and created his own offense. When Oregon State slid into a 1-3-1 zone, Ajayi smartly picked it apart by finding space right in the top of the key and hitting the easy two.
Ajayi is a talented scorer who hasn’t quite hit his stride yet and also highlights one of the more important divides between the two teams: Gonzaga has depth, Saint Mary’s does not.
Prediction
If this game was happening a week ago I’d say that Saint Mary’s wins by 20. Luckily, Gonzaga put in two solid performances since, but only one of those was against decent competition.
I’m skeptical about Gonzaga’s defense and Saint Mary’s style is ripe to exploit that. The Gaels are not heavily reliant on the three at all. Their 3PA/FGA ranks No. 316 in the nation and they generate an assist on 59.8 percent of all made baskets, good for No. 36 in the nation. This is a team that uses all 30 seconds, plays smartly, and finds good shots.
Gonzaga’s two-point defense has *slightly* improved since posting this but it is still decidedly average (if not bad). I’m happy to be wrong here, but I’m not entering this game expecting a win like usual.
Saint Mary’s 70, Gonzaga 64.