On Saturday evening, the Gonzaga Bulldogs take on the Saint Mary’s Gaels in what is essentially a must-win game at Spokane. Then again, for the Zags at this point, every game is a must-win game. What little “right side of the bubble” hopes that currently exist, however, require a win on Saturday.
Prepare for a grinder of a game folks, because the team that better executes their plays in the post is probably going to be the one who comes out on tops. And going by the stats, that’ll be hard to predict.
Saint Mary’s is a dominant rebounding team
KenPom ranks Saint Mary’s as the fifth-best offensive rebounding team in the country and the 13th-best defensive rebounding squad. Led by senior center Mitchell Saxen, whose OR% is No. 10 in the country, the Gaels own a +11.6 rebounding margin throughout the season.
The Gaels use the offensive boards as another key cog in their painfully slow tempo offense (ranked No. 356 in the country). Saint Mary’s only has 71 putback attempts on the season, meaning just 22 percent of their offensive boards result in another shot attempt within four seconds. Gonzaga, for comparison, has 76 put back attempts, at a rate of 30.9 percent of their offensive boards.
This has long been the Randy Bennett formula for success. Take 30 seconds off the clock and shoot the shot. If it goes in, great. If it doesn’t and you grab the board, take another 30 seconds off the clock and shoot the shot. Gouge your own eyes out at your leisure.
The Gonzaga offense has been a two-point machine in January
Led by Graham Ike and Anton Watson, the Zags’ 2P% for the month of January is a staggering 63 percent. Legitimately, if the Zags do that, and are able to hit some more three pointers, it’ll be hard for Saint Mary’s to stay in the game.
But that will be easier said than done, of course. The Gaels’ defense works so well because it largely denies the three-point opportunity (overall 3PA/FGA at just 29.5, 16th lowest mark in in the nation) and makes opponents work for those two-point shots that follow (defensive 2P% is 43.1, ninth lowest mark in the nation).
Gonzaga might have the upper hand here when it comes to the raw statistics. The Zags two-point defense has hardly been a slouch, holding opponents to just 44.4 percent in the nation (No. 19). Like all good matchups, the question is which one wills their team to victory: Gonzaga’s offense or Saint Mary’s defense?
The team with the inconsistent guard who shows up will probably win
Zag fans no doubt remember Aidan Mahaney taking over in the second half on February 4, 2023, hitting absurd shot after absurd shot as the Gaels pulled off a 78-70 OT win in Moraga. Already anointed the future of the WCC at that time, and cemented with that game, Mahaney’s sophomore season has been anything but.
No doubt, the kid can still score. This month alone, he has scored 25 against San Diego and Portland, 22 against San Fran on the road, and 18 against Santa Clara. He has also finished with just 11 points against Pacific and Santa Clara and nine against LMU.
Mahaney has been inconsistent the entire year. It is fine when Mahaney drops just three points against the likes of Middle Tennessee, but the Gaels can’t afford to have their best scorer disappear in an environment like Spokane.
Gonzaga, of course, has had its own consistency issues with its backcourt scoring from Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman. Lately, Hickman, however, has turned a corner in conference play and very much shown that potential many of us know is lurking.
Since posting just four points in the loss to Santa Clara, Hickman is averaging 17.2 points, shooting 51 percent from the floor, and hitting 41 percent of his threes. He has looked confident with his shot, confident with his shot selection, and sometimes absolutely filthy with the ball.
Mahaney, on the other hand, finished January a bit more quietly. After posting 22 points on the road in San Francisco, Mahaney has hit just 2 of his past 16 three point attempts and averaged just a shade over 10 points in his last three games.
History favors Gonzaga in the first matchup
Here is an interesting stat for you. Over the past 10 seasons, the Zags are 22-6 against Saint Mary’s. But look at this breakdown:
- First matchup of the year: Gonzaga 7-3, average win by 25.7 points, average loss by 4.6 points
- Second matchup of the year: Gonzaga 8-2, average win by 13.4 points, average loss by 7.5 points.
Take from this what you will, because the metric differential in quite a few of those years was pretty vast, but Gonzaga has more often than not absolutely owned Saint Mary’s in the first contest. The second contest sees the adjustments and the games have been a bit closer.
Now, obviously, this is the “down year” for the Zags. So the past decade of data really doesn’t mean much. But we’ve seen these two teams with drastically different styles meet repeatedly and Saint Mary’s has just two wins in Spokane in the last decade. Hopefully, Saturday night does not become the third.