Gonzaga’s offense is absolutely cooking for the home stretch

The Gonzaga Bulldogs embark on what is the most important week of the season in an attempt to cement their status on the right side of the bubble with two Quad 1 opportunities “at” San Francisco (in the Chase Center) and at Saint Mary’s.

In a season that has seemingly featured more downs than ups, this might not be the news the average Zag fan wants to hear. Looking at the numbers, however, provides a lot of hope that Gonzaga can pull this off, and in doing so, cement their NCAA Tournament streak in the process.

Gonzaga’s offensive efficiency during conference play is at an all-time high

This seems like a bit of a misnomer considering that the Zags currently stand at 12-2 in conference play instead of 14-0, but that is what happens when the three-point shot stumbles and the refs don’t call players out of bounds.

Gonzaga’s AdjO during conference play for this season stands at 126.6, according to KenPom. That is the highest number since the 2018-19 season (125.6) and the highest mark one can track on KenPom’s site.

The Zags eFG% during conference play sits at 61.1. Their TO% is at 12.0. They hit an absurd 62.9 percent of two-point attempts and 38.5 percent of three-pointers. The eFG% mark is just 0.1 percent higher than the 2020-21 squad.

The combination of brutalizing opponents in the post and limiting turnovers has meant that Gonzaga can stay in any game, and rattle off runs, despite not being a premier three-point shooting team of old. That gets us into the next point…

The three-point shooting has finally started to come around

On the season, Gonzaga shoot 34.9 percent from three-point range, a respectable and unimpressive mark of No. 138 in the country. That number has trended up as of late, especially for one key individual.

Let’s just look at the overall numbers first. As a team, Gonzaga has attempted 569 threes and made 198 on the season. That number has revved up a significant amount since hitting rock bottom against Santa Clara on Jan. 11.

• First 16 games of season: 102 for 322 = 31.6 percent
• Last 12 games of season: 96 for 247 = 38.9 percent

That change has been spurred by Nolan Hickman, among others. Hickman is now shooting 41.3 percent from long range on the year, and here are his splits after that same loss to Santa Clara.

• First 16 games of season: 28 for 76 = 36.8 percent
• Last 12 games of season: 38 for 84 = 45.2 percent

Hickman has only two real hiccups since the loss to Santa Clara–the win over Kentucky (1-for-5) and the loss to Saint Mary’s (0-for-5). Otherwise, he has made at least three three-pointers in each contest since.

If the Zags hit a few more three pointers against Santa Clara, Saint Mary’s, Washington, or San Diego State, that wouldn’t suddenly mean they are an elite level team. It very well could have changed those losses into wins, however. That, at its core, has been the issue with this Gonzaga squad. Not roster management. Not limited bench production. Just a full blown lack of three-pointers.

The stats show the climb the offense has made over the past six weeks

The rise of the three-point shot reflects the rise of Gonzaga’s offense in the KenPom standings. After the loss to Santa Clara, Gonzaga’s AdjO fell to 115.5, good for No. 32 in the country (the lowest mark on the season is after the San Diego State game).

Since then, the Zags AdjO has risen the most out of every single team ahead of them, landing at 120.5 as of this week, good for tenth-best in the country.

Obviously, there are plenty of other metrics that go into an efficient offense. But the thing about Gonzaga is it largely already was good at most of them. Low TO%? Check. Efficient offensive rebounding team? Check.

It didn’t necessarily matter that the Zags barely shot many threes in most games anyway. Even the most efficient two-point shooting team is going to lose ground against the three-pointer. That is simple math–three is greater than two.

If you want reasons to think the Zags can pull it off this week, this post is for you. Because even with all of that said and done, two Quad 1 road opportunities, at San Francisco and Saint Mary’s, is easier said than done. Considering that as good as Gonzaga’s offense has been since January 12, that Saint Mary’s has been ranked as the No. 4 team in all of college basketball, the Zags are going to need every three-pointer they can make.