The first round of the NCAA Tournament features some bulldog on bulldog violence as Gonzaga takes on Georgia, with the winner earning the rights to most likely face the No. 1 Houston Cougars in the second round.
Georgia finished the season at 20-12 and just 8-10 in conference play. That conference, however, was the SEC, which sent approximately 67 schools into the NCAA Tournament.
Much like Gonzaga, Georgia doesn’t really have any bad losses–they just have quite a few of them. Their lowest trip up was losing by three points to a No. 40 ranked Arkansas on the road–not exactly a bad loss.
Gonzaga is favored to win by a sizeable amount considering the usual coin-flip nature of the No. 8 vs. No. 9 seed. Here are a few things I’ll be watching for.
Graham Ike vs. Asa Newell
Gonzaga was on the hunt for the five-star Asa Newell, who decided to remain close to home for college. He will get a taste of the “what if” when he takes on Graham Ike. Newell has the height advantage, but Ike has the edge on size, strength, and experience.
Considering Ike is the focal point of the offense when he is on the floor, I’d expect that to continue. I’d also expect to see Gonzaga try and utilize that experience at doing what Ike does best: Drawing fouls. The Bulldogs have some size down low, both Newell and Somto Cyril are 6’11, but both are freshman.
Exploit the turnover discrepancy
Georgia’s TO% on offense is not good — No. 291 in the country to be exact. Compare that to Gonzaga at No. 4, and there are some points here that favor Gonzaga.
Both Silas Demary and Blue Cain are aggressive on the defensive end, each averaging over a steal per game. Ryan Nembhard is also incredibly steady at the point at Nolan Hickman does not turn the ball over very often. If Gonzaga can limit TOs in this game, it’ll be on Georgia to attempt the same on their end.
The Zags have posted a TO% on offense of 15 or more 11 times this season. Georgia has done so 24 times. Gonzaga has posted a TO% of 20 or more once this season, Georgia ten times.
If Gonzaga can take advantage of the turnovers and generate some offense–something the team has always excelled at with their running bigs, it puts the pressure on Georgia to stay in the game.
Limit the damage on the offensive boards
Georgia is a really interesting team in that they are ranked No. 16 in OR% at 36.1 but then ranked No. 280 at DR% at 31.8. What does this mean in simple terms? Georgia is an elite offensive rebounding team that can’t grab a defensive board to safe its life. The benefit ends up being pretty much a net zero. On the season, Georgia averages 11.8 offensive boards per game and their opponents average 11.6.
Gonzaga is by no means a top-tier offensive rebounding team, but they are a solid defensive rebounding team. If the Zags can grab the usual amount of offensive boards Georgia allows, and then limit the amount Georgia can snag, it is just another step the southern Bulldogs have to climb.
My prediction
Although a No. 8 vs. a No. 9 seed should largely be considered a game that can go either way, the Zags are not a normal No. 8 seed. They are a theoretical three or four seed that has vastly underperformed throughout the season.
Gonzaga has also not lost in the first round of the NCAA Tournament since 2008. There are plenty of teams who would give more pause to just blindly pick Gonzaga because of that streak in this tournament, but Georgia is not that team.
Those Bulldogs are good, but the turnover issues, combined with the fact that Georgia is not a particularly good shooting team, is going to make it hard to keep up with the Gonzaga offense.
Gonzaga 80, Georgia 70.