The Gonzaga Bulldogs opened the preseason at a rather pedestrian (by recent Gonzaga standards) No. 21 in the preseason AP Poll. The analytics were a bit higher on the mark–KenPom listed Gonzaga as No. 8.
In just two weeks, things have changed. After obliterating Southern Utah earlier this week, the Zags woke up on Tuesday morning currently ranked the top team in KenPom.
Personally, I was preparing to look at this year as an inbetweener–good, maybe a Sweet 16, but not necessarily championship contender. Apparently, I’ve already sold the Zags short. So how did we get there? Short answer: The defense is better than anyone was expecting.
Just take a look at the preseason stats vs. the current rankings for the top 10 teams (difference noted in parenthesis).
| Team | Current Net Rank | Current ORtg | Current DRtg |
| Gonzaga | 29.97 (+4.05) | 122.0 (+1.8) | 92.1 (+2.2) |
| Duke | 29.69 (+3.31) | 123.4 (+2.9) | 93.7 (+0.4) |
| Houston | 29.35 (-1.78) | 118.9 (-0.6) | 89.6 (-1.3) |
| Kentucky | 28.86 (-0.09) | 123.0 (+2.9) | 94.1 (-2.9) |
| Purdue | 28.61 (-0.53) | 128.0 (+3.5) | 99.4 (-4.0) |
| Illinois | 27.94 (+1.12) | 123.8 (+3.3) | 95.8 (-2.1) |
| UConn | 123.4 (-0.81) | 123.4 (+2.1) | 95.8 (-2.8) |
| Iowa State | 119.2 (+2.81) | 119.2 (+5.5) | 92.2 (-2.7) |
| Florida | 119.8 (-2.85) | 119.8 (-1.5) | 93.1 (-1.2) |
| Lousiville | 26.30 (+2.18) | 125.8 (+5.2) | 99.5 (-3.1) |
The biggest driver for Gonzaga’s leap from the preaseson is the defense, with Gonzaga as pretty much the only top 10 team with meaningful movement in the right direction there. It is unsurprising that the preseason models were lower on Gonzaga’s defense considering the amount of turnover from last year’s squad, which finished a perfectly serviceable, but hardly elite, No. 29 in defensive rating.
With Graham Ike and Braden Huff maintaining their roles, the only other real indicator of Gonzaga’s defense was Emmanuel Innocenti, a noted defender who was largely expected to take on more minutes.
Other than that, it was a bunch of new guys all bundled together in to the “what if it all works” category, and that is something the metrics cannot ever really tell you in the preseason. We all knew Jalen Warley was noted for his defense. However, the best defenders only meet their potential with the right players and system around them.
That is largely what we are seeing happening right now. Between Innocenti, Warley, and Tyon Grant-Foster, the Zags have essentially three premium perimeter defenders. Mario Saint-Supery, early on, also looks like he has those innate markings of someone who knows what is up on D.
What that means is Gonzaga, at any given time, can realistically put in two lock-down defenders, and with Grant-Foster and Warley, still not sacrifice much in terms of offensive output. The depth is a key factor here–when the drop-off from starter to bench player is minimal at best, all of the underlying metrics are going to get better and better.
Now, as the year progresses, should we expect Gonzaga to be the only team in the top 10 who improved their defense? Of course not. Defense is more of a team sport than offense is in basketball. You can have an offensive miscue, not notice an open man, take a bad shot, and still ultimately end up with points on that trip to the bucket. Breakdowns on defense usually lead to easy points for the opposing team.
Especially, with each team in college hoops featuring so many new faces, we should expect the theoretically elite defensive teams to get better as the units gel and the season progresses. That should hold largely true for Gonzaga as well–the question for the Zags will be if they hit their defensive ceiling earlier than most or if there is still room to grow throughout the entire season.