As the final week of the season approaches, the Gonzaga Bulldogs find themselves in a rather unfamiliar territory–fully on the bubble. Although the win over Kentucky provided a bit of juice for the resume, the idea that Gonzaga’s NCAA Tournament streak could end without an automatic bid via the WCC Tournament is a rather real concept.
The last time Gonzaga sat in this situation was in 2016. Gonzaga was just coming off a “must win” resume building February non-conference game at SMU (they didn’t) and had just dropped the second game of the season, this time at home, to the Saint Mary’s Gaels.
Those Zags would close out the week with an easy win over San Diego and a three point win on the road in BYU, and would then go on to take the WCC Tournament crown for the automatic bid.
Since then, the question for the end of the regular season has been less about Gonzaga taking care of business and more about whether or not they’ve done enough to maintain a top seed line. Since that 2016 season, the Zags have’ earned four No. 1 seeds, made two championship games, and made it to the second weekend of March Madness unless COVID said otherwise.
This season isn’t necessarily as dramatic as the 2016 season, mainly, because if the season ended now, Gonzaga has an actual argument for inclusion in the tournament. They have a big Quad 1 in over Kentucky (committees love those road wins) and the metrics love the Zags.
If Gonzaga takes both games over San Francisco and Saint Mary’s, they are probably safely in the NCAA Tournament as an at-large no matter what happens. If they take one of two, the equation gets a little bit less friendly. And if they drop them both, well, we are back to WCC Tourney champs or bust.
There are, in my opinion, more reasons for optimism than pessimism for the final week’s outlook. Here are a couple:
San Francisco at Chase Center = Advantage Gonzaga
I’m not the biggest fan of going away from home/homes in general, but this will be a cool opportunity for the Dons’ players and fans to see them in their brand new shining jewel of an arena.
That said, this venue change will benefit Gonzaga and only Gonzaga. The game is still be counted as a true road game for the Zags (Quad 1 baby) and, as of now, there are still plenty of tickets available. Instead of the rocky and cozy confines of the War Memorial Arena, a place the Dons have traditionally played Gonzaga closely, it’ll be in the spacious halls of an unfilled arena.
Put simply, the vibes of this contest will not resemble a true road game whatsoever.
The Joshua Jefferson injury really hurts Saint Mary’s
The Gaels recently learned that sophomore forward Joshua Jefferson’s season would end early due to a knee injury. Jefferson has shined for the Gaels this season, averaging 10.2 points and 6.5 rebounds per game.
Most importantly, he is one of the Gaels’ best defenders. His DR% of 24.1 leads the team, an important identity for Saint Mary’s, who owns the nation’s best defensive rebounding percentage as a team. Additionally, per Hoop-explorer.com, with Jefferson on the court, the Gaels adjusted defensive points per 100 possessions is 87.6. With him off the court that balloons to 98.0.
Jefferson dropped 16 points and 10 rebounds in the Gaels’ win over the Zags in Spokane this season. There haven’t been enough data points to see how much his absence affects Saint Mary’s, but if last week’s game against San Francisco is any indication, it isn’t helpful. Saint Mary’s beat the Dons by 17 points in San Francisco but barely escaped with a four-point win at home.
Nolan Hickman is hitting threes
Of the three points, this might be the biggest one. Hickman has been on an absolute tear, for the most part, in conference play, shooting 46.3 percent from long range. The only two games in which he has truly struggled were the Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s games, a combined 0-for-8 from long range.
If Hickman is feeling comfortable with his stroke, and considering he has hit at least four three pointers in five of the six games since the Saint Mary’s loss, that gives the Gonzaga offense a boost on one of the aspects that has been sorely missing this season–the three point shot.
Remember, a couple of extra threes turns the Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara, Washington, and arguably, San Diego State losses into wins. This is why the metrics love Gonzaga. They are a good team, but have just struggled a bit to overcompensate for the poor outside shooting.
That isn’t to say that this is suddenly an offensive juggernaut. But if Gonzaga can hit threes consistently, and we’ve seen that in five of the last six games, the offense is a different beast altogether.