Earlier today, top 20 Class of 2025 winger Nikolas Khamenia announced he had chosen the Duke Blue Devils over the Gonzaga Bulldogs.
That is the second big swing and a miss from the staff on the recruiting front in the Class of 2025. The staff had been on Khamenia since the dawn of time. Same with five-star guard Isiah Harwell out of Idaho, who chose the Houston Cougars earlier this year. And although five-star point guard Kingston Flemmings hasn’t committed yet, many do not expect the Zags to be the landing spot.
If I were a betting man, I would tell you to take care of yourself, trust the process, and never bet against Mark Few and the coaching staff. We have been here before, in a rather dramatic way.
Coming off the 2017 national championship appearing season, one would’ve thought the Zags could not be riding much higher. The recruiting trail told them otherwise. That offseason, Andrew Nembhard chose Florida, David Singleton chose UCLA, Taeshon Cherry chose USC, Daejon Davis decommited from UW twice and went to Stanford, Brandon Williams chose Arizona twice, Kamaka Hepa chose Texas, and on and on. At the time, for many of the more easily panicked in the fanbase, the sky hadn’t just fallen. The earth was rotating in the opposite direction, gravity was gone, and life was dissolving before our very eyes.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs’ record proved otherwise. Since that “off” year of recruiting, Gonzaga has rattled off at minimum a Sweet 16 appearance each year, with a few Elite Eights and a national championship appearance sprinkled in for good luck.
With the only member of the Class of 2025 being limited to four-star Anacortes product Davis Fogle, it might seem like the cupboard for the future is bare. The issue is that although the Zags have shown the ability to land high-level recruits, that perception that they should always land them is getting a bit over-emphasized within the fanbase. Five-star guys have never been the bread and butter of the program. It was great watching Jalen Suggs, Chet Holmgren, and Hunter Sallis hit the court, but they are more outliers than the level Gonzaga is consistently landing.
Remember, this is a program built around development, not immediate returns. And with the transfer portal set up as it is, Gonzaga’s modus operandi of the past few years (and since grad transfers were the only thing) is to find the guys that fit the bill and plug the holes in the portal. This is only being emphasized more as college ball gets a boost of experience thanks to the introduction of NIL.
That is not to say that the Zags would not be better with these levels of innate athleticism and skill injected in–of course they would. But it is never a sure thing. Hunter Sallis arrived as a highly-touted five-star borderline top 10 recruit. He looks to be on track for the NBA now, as a senior at Wake Forest. Nolan Hickman straddled the line between four- and five-stars, and he is closing out his senior year in Spokane.
The Jalen Suggs and the Chet Holmgrens of Gonzaga’s history are limited to those two. Zach Collins is the only other true one and done in team history. The reality of Gonzaga’s recruiting history is that the majority of guys who have developed to succeed in the NBA have done exactly that–develop. There isn’t a single realistic soul who looked at the bright-eyed and bushy-tailed freshman Corey Kispert and thought to themselves, that dude is going to agree to a four-year, $54 million extension. Brandon Clarke was a good player at San Jose State and turned into a monster at Gonzaga. It is a testament to their hard work and the structure of the program that allows for these success stories.
One might not be looking at Dusty Stromer and thinking NBA material. Davis Fogle might not be as flashy as you want him to be. All of this is fine.
The important thing to remember is that the demise of the Gonzaga Bulldogs has been predicted often by doomsayers across the internet, and yet, it has not even come remotely to fruition. Gonzaga is already heading into next year with a solid core of *maybe* Steele Venters, Braden Huff, Braden Smith, and Dusty Stromer to build from. The team has shown one of the more consistent abilities in college hoops to continually land elite transfers, even before NIL was a thing.
So until the Zags finally have that season in which they miss the NCAA Tournament, the future, as it has been for the past two decades-plus, is looking bright. Even if yet another five-star kid decides to play for Duke.
Great article Peter. I miss you writing for TSSF.