Well, the bracket is out and the Selection Committee was not kind to the Gonzaga Bulldogs. Those hoping for something a bit higher had their hopes cruelly dashed as Gonzaga earned a No. 8 seed in the Midwest Region.
Wichita, Kansas will be home for the week. Going with the theme of this season, the Zags are an intriguing NCAA Tournament team. The analytics love them, the results of the schedule do not. That means this team simultaneously has the potential to do a whole lot of damage or none at all.
Let’s take a look at why both sides of the coin are equally possible.
Here is why Gonzaga is primed for a deep NCAA Tournament run
Gonzaga has one of the best point guards in the country.
Everyone knows that strong point guard play is pretty much a requirement to advancing in the NCAA Tournament, and the Zags are well equipped with Bob Cousy Award Finalist Snub Ryan Nembhard.
Nembhard leads the nation in assists this season and it isn’t even close–he has 53 more than Braden Smith, who sits at No. 2. Nembhard most likely didn’t make the cut based off his lack of scoring. He is not the No. 1 scoring option on the Zags. However, he has demonstrated a more active ability in hunting his shot this year, be it from three (a career best 39.3 percent) or the mid-range game.
These Zags take care of the ball
Gonzaga is ranked No. 5 in TO%, turning the ball over on just 13.2 percent of their possessions. The only other top 10 offense in the top 10 of TO% is Auburn.
The season is long, so Gonzaga hasn’t been perfect by any stretch (UCLA and Nicholls I see you), but for the most part, ball security is not one of the things we need to worry about with Gonzaga for 40 minutes. Limiting turnovers equates to limiting easy buckets, and it is one of the reasons that Gonzaga can play with anybody. Of course, winning against anybody is a different thing.
Because the analytics say so.
Since bottoming out against Santa Clara in mid January, Gonzaga has posted the No. 15 offense and the No. 14 defense per Barttorvik. That makes them one of three teams alongside Duke and Houston to have a top 15 in both offense and defense.
Things were dire after the Broncos hung 101 points on Gonzaga in Spokane. The morning after, the Zags defense was ranked No. 60 by KenPom. It is now ranked No. 28 as of typing this sentence. The defense has vastly improved while the offense has largely held its own, lingering around the top 10 mark.
That is a dangerous team to face in the second round. That is a dangerous team to face in the Sweet 16. The odds are going to be harder for Gonzaga, no doubt, because of their poor seeding, but this team has demonstrated it can compete with anyone.
This will be the first year in a decade we don’t enjoy the NCAA Tournament very much
The Zags cannot shoot the three.
There are a lot of keys required for deep NCAA Tournament runs, and one of them is the ability to shoot the three at a consistent rate. Gonzaga definitely cannot do that. On the season, the Zags shoot 34.4 percent, good for No. 149 in the a nation.
The more concerning factor, however, is that when the Zags go cold from outside, they go very cold. We watched it happen against Saint Mary’s in an extreme way, with Gonzaga hitting just 1-of-15. The Zags have shot under 25 percent from three eight times this season and are currently 8-for-65 (12.3 percent) over their last four games.
The analytics may say so, but the seeding does not.
The Zags clocked in with the No. 8 seed, which is generally the kiss of death for actual expectations. In the first round, the Zags face off against a Georgia team that 8-10 in conference play, but that conference was the SEC. Those Bulldogs have wins over Kentucky, Florida, St. Johns, and others, and like Gonzaga, don’t really have a bad loss on the resume.
Presuming Gonzaga makes it past that first round coin flip game, they have the good fortune of playing the Houston Cougars, aka the evolved version of Saint Mary’s. All teams have to play their very best to make it to the second weekend, the lower seeds, even more so.
Consistency has troubled the Zags all season.
All three of these are major points and all three of them bear equal weight. One of Gonzaga’s main achilles heel this season has been the getting everyone to show up in one game. It has happened before once or twice, but not often enough. Usually, two of Gonzaga’s major players have themselves a game, a couple of others maybe chip in less than you’d wish, and two or three fall of the face of the Earth.
I called it the Shit the Bed metric earlier in the season and it is one of the major ways this team has been so aggravating to watch this season. The potential has been on display too many times to count and the results have not followed through.
My prediction
I’m honestly looking forward to a year with low expectations for just overall ease of NCAA Tournament watching. For the first time in a decade, Gonzaga doesn’t make the Sweet 16.
I’ll give the Zags the benefit of the doubt for the first round, they’ve earned it at this point. Houston is just going to be too much for Gonzaga to handle.
The Cougars have four losses on the season. Only one of those has happened since November 30. Three of those losses were in OT, and the fourth (the second game of the year against Auburn) was by five points.
In short, in the same way that a few more baskets could’ve made Gonzaga’s season narrative completely different, a few more baskets could’ve made Houston undefeated entering the NCAA Tournament. That is how good they are. Gonzaga hasn’t demonstrated an ability to beat someone of that level this season, and it isn’t going to change on Saturday.