The Gonzaga Bulldogs have a critical game on Saturday against Saint Mary’s for multiple reasons: 1) No one likes Saint Mary’s; 2) A win over Saint Mary’s is desperately needed for the resume and seeding; 3) It is senior night.
Things weren’t going too great back in January-ish when the two teams last met. Gonzaga had just hit rock bottom the week prior in a home loss to Santa Clara. The game against Saint Mary’s was close, but once again, it seemed like Gonzaga squandered away a winnable one down the stretch.
Since the loss, Gonzaga has looked much more like a Gonzaga team of yesteryear against its WCC competition. A bad Pepperdine team was crushed by over 50 points. The Zags dispatched a decent San Francisco team by 11 at home and then took it to WSU on the road, winning by 21.
Here are a few of the things I’ll be look for:
Hit a three-pointer please
Saint Mary’s truly tried to gift Gonzaga a win last time around. The Gaels missed 50% of their free throws. The Zags’ defense clamped down in the post, holding Saint Mary’s to just 40 percent from two.
The big issue, and arguably what decided the game, is that Gonzaga went just 3-for-17 from three while Saint Mary’s was 9-for-25–a 16 point advantage.
Gonzaga is not an elite three-point shooting team this year. However, they are better than 3-for-17. Nolan Hickman just drained 4-of-5 the other night. He needs to do that again. Khalif Battle was 4-for-8 from long range against Pepperdine. Good! He was a combined 1-for-15 against Saint Mary’s, LMU, and Pacific. Not good.
If Gonzaga just hit their average threes against Saint Mary’s, they would have won the game. Easier said then done, but make it work at home this time.
More production from the bench
Saint Mary’s bench outscored Gonzaga’s 18-11 in the first contest this year, which is a bit embarrassing because the Saint Mary’s bench is a steep drop off and Randy Bennett hits them up for minutes 18.9 percent of the time, the third-lowest amount in college hoops.
We just watched Michael Ajayi, Dusty Stromer, and Braden Huff score 29 points against Washington State. Gonzaga needs its bench to score, not be an offensive blackhole against the Saint Mary’s defense while the starters rest.
DO NOT OVERCOMMIT THE HELP DEFENSE ON EVERY DRIBBLE DRIVE TO THE HOOP AND LEAVE A THREE-POINT SHOOTER WIDE OPEN FOR THE LOVE OF FREAKING JEBUS
Saint Mary’s looked like they were going to run Gonzaga out of the court and the country back at Moraga in the first half, staking out an early first half lead of 14 points. Gonzaga made it a game, of course, but the defensive issues early on meant the Zags were always clawing back against a good Saint Mary’s D.
What we saw happen over and over and over and over and over and over and over again last time around was the Gonzaga defense overcommitting on any level of penetration and leaving a Saint Mary’s shooter COMPLETELY WIDE OPEN. The Zags stopped doing that in the second half, and guess what? The Gaels shot just 2-for-13 from long range vs. 7-for-12 in the first half.
Here is the thing about Saint Mary’s: This is not a good offensive team. This iteration of Randy Bennett’s own personal vision of hell switched from being a painstakingly efficient offensive team to a stout defensive unit four years ago. Saint Mary’s gets high marks in the metrics because of two things: They don’t turn the ball over and they grab basically every offensive rebound possible.
However, when the shooting numbers don’t lie: 33.6 (No. 184) from three, 52.3 (No. 134) from two, and 69.1 (No. 277) from the free-throw line. This team is not good at scoring. Average shooters become good shooters when left completely wide open, however.
Prediction
Gonzaga 70, Saint Mary’s 64
Now, before you just call me biased, please note that I did pick Saint Mary’s to win the game in Moraga.
So what is different this time around? In the month of February, which includes the loss to Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga’s 2P defense has vastly improved, limiting opponents to 43.1 percent (13th best in the country).
I would take Gonzaga’s chances simply on the rough mathematical equation of Elite Offense + Great Defense > Meh Offense + Elite Defense.