Back in December, after Gonzaga dropped another close game to UConn, I cheekily posted something titled “What is wrong with Gonzaga? What is wrong with Gonzaga? What is wrong with Gonzaga?“, which had an important closing to the entire post:
So what is wrong with Gonzaga? I’d argue nothing too concerning at the moment. Teams don’t have to look like champions in December. Teams need to look like champions in March. So until the calendar turns to the month of February or so, I’m not going to panic.”
As I type this sentence, it is February 3, and many of the issues that stemmed from that post have gone on to realize their most awful potential. The advanced metrics love the Zags. They are ranked No. 11 in KenPom, No. 17 by Barttorvik, No. 11 by ESPN’s BPI, and are No. 13 in the NET rankings.
They are also 16-7 with three overtime losses. Those seven losses have been decided by an average of roughly five points, which honestly makes the gaps seem larger than they are because of late-game futile fouling. In short, Gonzaga is basically 0-7 in one possession games, and it has been brutal to watch.
Despite the fact that I was born and raised as a fan of the Seattle Mariners, I am a glass is half full kind of guy. After three close losses, I wasn’t ready to hit the panic button. Seven is more than double than three, however, so it is time to sound the alarm, whatever that alarm is for.
And that has largely been the problem with this Gonzaga team this season. Outside of the Bob Ross stroke of “This team struggles in the clutch,” each loss has almost been its own blend of unique struggles, from three-point shooting, to defensive issues, to offensive lapses, to brain-dead turnovers.
Three-point shooting has been an issue….sort of
In three of Gonzaga’s seven losses, they’ve posted some of their worst three-point shooting this season. Saint Mary’s (3-for-17 / 17.6%), Kentucky (6-27 / 22.2%), and UCLA (7-for-24 / 29.2%) represent the second-, third-, and fifth-worst marks, respectively, this season.
However, against the likes of UConn, Gonzaga went 6-for-16 (37.5%). Oregon State it was right on the season average of 36% at 9-for-25. Santa Clara, a shade under but still 10 made threes with 10-for-28 (35.7%). (Interestingly, that loss to Santa Clara was the first time the Zags had made 10 threes in a game and loss since the PK80 double OT loss to Florida in 2017).
There is one baseline number here: When Gonzaga shoots higher than 38 percent from three, they are 8-0. When Gonzaga shoots lower, they are 8-7.
So far, Gonzaga’s 36% from three ranks No. 74 in the country and is tied for the second-lowest mark in the Mark Few era. Three-point shooting has been a problem in losses…sometimes.
Defense has been a definitive issue
This really should be as no surprise, but the five games in which Gonzaga has posted its worst defensive efficiency have all resulted in a loss. What might be most frustrating is that the defense has been an issue in a wide variety of ways. Easy fix? Don’t come looking here.
In two losses (Santa Clara and UCLA), the Zags gave up the most threes they have all season (18 and 12).
In three of the games, Gonzaga opponents destroyed them from two: Santa Clara at 62.1, UConn at 62.9, and Oregon State at 64.1.
In two losses (Saint Mary’s and Kentucky), the Zags have surrendered the highest percentage of offensive boards.
And then there is the West Virginia game, which will remain the enigma for the entirety of the season.
Consistency is not this squad’s strong suit
For a team that has six players scoring in double-digits, this really shouldn’t be too big of an issue. However, since Gonzaga refuses to get blown out and only lose close contests, the MIA performances have a larger impact.
Here is the list of casualties from my arbitrarily-designed “Shit the Bed” offensive metric in each of Gonzaga’s losses:
- Saint Mary’s: Nolan Hickman, Ben Gregg, Michael Ajayi, Khalif Battle
- Santa Clara: Everyone scored a bajillion points but forgot that defense as a concept existed
- Oregon State: See Santa Clara
- UCLA: Michael Ajayi, Khalif Battle, Nolan Hickman, Ben Gregg
- UConn: Graham Ike, Nolan Hickman
- Kentucky: Braden Huff, Michael Ajayi
- West Virginia: Graham Ike
When you combine a leaky defense with a creaky offense, your chances of losing close games goes up in exponential value. And to a certain extent, that is what I think we are seeing happening with Gonzaga.
These Zags are just a so-so team on defense (in plenty of enraging ways). Their offense is *usually* elite, but when it isn’t, it is pretty much a recipe for a loss. No one should be surprised that in five of Gonzaga’s worst seven offensive efficiency showings they’ve lost the game. The outliers–Santa Clara and Kentucky–were games filled with defensive issues.
So where do we go from here?
Part of it is because I have a child under the age of one and I just do not have the energy to truly care as much when tip-off starts at 8:00 pm, but the reality of the situation is that we need to take that preseason ranking of No. 3 and all of that chatter of a Final Four and file it away deep into the recesses of the psyche where it cannot be accessed for the rest of our lives.
The metrics say Gonzaga is a great team but the results say Gonzaga is merely a good team. That is what Gonzaga is until proven otherwise. I’m not locker room guru, but I’d assume that monkey on the back is rather heavy.
According to KenPom’s poorly titled “Luck” mark (which is just the deviation in actual record vs. expected record) slots Gonzaga at No. 351 in the country. That is where stats can only get you so far. Gonzaga should be winning more games and they aren’t. Sometimes, it is just as simple as that.