The Gonzaga Bulldogs head out to New York City to play in the famed Madison Square Garden, taking on the UConn Huskies on Saturday.
Gonzaga is coming off an incredibly disappointing loss to Kentucky in Seattle last Saturday. UConn, on the other hand, is riding high, having taken down Baylor at home and Texas on the road last week to help wash out the taste of the Maui Invitational from their mouth.
Here are a few things I’ll be looking at during this game:
How does UConn handle Graham Ike?
In all of the way too-early threepeat chatter for the Huskies, the absence of Donovan Clingan was largely overlooked. Sure, Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed block a lot of shots. They also foul like absolute maniacs. Johnson has fouled out in four games this season and commits 7.6 fouls per 40 minutes. Reed is a bit more reserved, but still commits 4.6 fouls per 40 minutes.
They’ll be tasked with guarding Graham Ike, who just happens to lead the nation in 8.9 fouls drawn per 40 minutes. Foul trouble was UConn’s Achilles heel throughout the Maui Invitational. This is a matchup I would expect Gonzaga to exploit. When Johnson and Reed hit foul trouble, UConn is not a tall team, and Gonzaga can really go to work on the inside.
Gonzaga’s defense needs to show up
The Gonzaga offense got a lot of flack for the letdown versus Kentucky, but the defense also did not hold up its end of the bargain. After holding the Wildcats to just 33% shooting, Kentucky cleaned the floor against Gonzaga in the second half. They finished with a staggering 1.5 points per possession in those 20 minutes and scored 26 points in the paint.
The Huskies’ offense is the third-best in the nation. It is also very heavy on the three-point shooting, with 47.5% of the overall field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc.
Gonzaga’s perimeter defense will need to be absolutely on-point in this game. If the Zags are just trading twos for threes through this game, that math will not add up for a victory.
Control the defensive glass
UConn is a very good offensive rebounding team. Their offense is too good to allow for second-chance points, and the Zags are just coming off a game in which a failure to do anything on the defensive glass, some largely due to bad bounces and others due to missed marks, ended up contributing to the loss.
The Wildcats are not a good offensive rebounding team, but against Gonzaga they posted their second-highest OR% of the season and generated 16 second-chance points off of it. That just happened to coincide with Gonzaga posting its worst DR% of the season.
The Zags are a good defensive rebounding team. They need to dedicate a lot of time and energy to this aspect of the game to ensure a win.
In reality, this game is a must-win for Gonzaga come March
Although UConn has its fair share of stumbles to start this season, they always have the Big East to fall back on, which currently features five top 50 KenPom teams. The Zags don’t have that luxury as much. Although the WCC is improved thanks to the additions of Washington State and Oregon State, its a dire situation at the bottom.
Gonzaga’s non-conference schedule is made so aggressively for two purposes–exposing the team to high-level competition AND getting those marquee wins for a high seed.
The Zags are not SOL. The Arizona State win is aging nicely. Being on the road for the win over SDSU is a feather in the cap and Baylor will be good. Neither loss this season is bad, but they are missed opportunities.
If the Zags want a one-seed, they have to win out the rest of the season, and even then it is hardly guaranteed. If they drop this contest to UConn, the last powerhouse matchup is against UCLA at the end of December.
Score Prediction
Gonzaga and UConn seem to be arriving at the two opposite ends of the spectrum. Gonzaga is fresh off a tough loss that 99 times out of 100 should have been a win. UConn has largely erased the hangover of Maui with quality wins over Baylor and on the road at Texas. Momentum, it would seem, appears to be in the Huskies favor.
However, this is a Gonzaga blog, and although I think the game will be very close, I think UConn’s defensive issues will be more exposed against Gonzaga than they were against Baylor.
Likewise, although this will probably be in an crowd favoring UConn, the Zags are going to be hungrier for this win. Or at least they should be. KenPom says this should be a 80-76 win for Gonzaga.
Considering the offenses, I’ll put it a little bit higher, but same result. 85-80, Zags.