The Gonzaga Bulldogs head to Seattle for an evening against the new-look Mark Pope-led Kentucky Wildcats. It is a game of heavy importance for both squads. For Gonzaga, this is another chance to add a shining jewel to the resume. For Kentucky, a win helps prove that this team is one that will compete deep into March.
Here are a few things to watch for this game:
This should be a super entertaining offensive matchup
John Calipari never pushed the tempo too often during his Kentucky tenure. That has already changed under Pope, who has Kentucky pushing the pedal to the metal with the fourth-fastest tempo in college.
We all now that Gonzaga likes to play fast, so this will be a horse race to bet on. Both feature elite offenses with good defenses to supplement. The final score could very well be fitting for a NBA-caliber arena.
A tough test for Gonzaga’s defense
Gonzaga’s defensive numbers are currently buoyed a bit by their “three-point defense.” As Ken Pomeroy wrote about this years ago: Early three-point defensive numbers are largely meaningless because there is more randomness in three-point shooting.
Even with the explosion of 3-point shooting, a defense’s effectiveness begins with its ability to discourage easy 2s. If you can prevent layups and dunks without a lot of help defense, expect that 3-point defense to look pretty good as opponents settle for worse shots. And if you can’t prevent easy shots at the rim, 3-point percentage should rise as opponents pass up even open shots knowing they can get a high-value shot at the rim when they need it.”
Gonzaga is holding opponents to just 50.7 percent from two, good for just No. 180 in the nation. Meanwhile, opponents are shooting just 24.5 percent from long range, the fourth-lowest mark in the nation.
This matters because Kentucky has a 61.9 2P%. They recently went an absurd 33-for-41 (80.5%) from two against Georgia State. They rarely turn over the ball on offense and have an assist on each field goal made 61.2 percent of the time, good for No. 32 in the country. This is an efficient offense.
Gonzaga’s two-point defense has been a mixed bag, especially as of late. Arizona State went 21-for-34 inside the arc, and the Zags followed that up by locking down for three-straight games. The Battle 4 Atlantis was less than forgiving, with West Virginia, Indiana, and Davidson all hitting 50+% from two.
Gonzaga has an advantage on the offensive glass
Every possession is going to count in this game. On the season, Kentucky has proven to be a good defensive rebounding team (No. 16 in the nation) but not a good offensive rebounding team (No. 185). The Zags, meanwhile, good/great on both ends–limiting opponents OR% to 22.2 (No. 11) and owning their own OR% of 35.0 (No. 60).
Drexel transfer Amari Williams is an absolute monster on the glass, averaging 10 rebounds per game in just 19 minutes of play. If anyone other than him starts racking up those offensive boards, things might start to go downhill quickly. Kentucky is too good of an offensive unit to just give free buckets too–especially considering offensive rebounding is not their strong suit.
The team that turns the ball over less wins this game
Both Kentucky and Gonzaga are rather evenly matched across the board. This game is going to come down to who is more efficient on offense with their shot selection and preventing turnovers. Again, both teams excel at ball control on offense and don’t really force the issue on defense.
- Gonzaga’s Offensive TO% – 12.9 (7), Defensive TO% 18.8 (124)
- Kentucky’s Offensive TO% – 13.2 (13), Defensive TO% 15.8 (261)
Ryan Nembhard came a bit back down to earth with turnovers after the Battle 4 Atlantis. In five games leading up to the MTE, he had a grand total of six TOs. He finished with eight TOs in three games in the Bahamas. Still, his assist-to-turnover ratio on the season is nearly 5.5:1, which is an insane stat.
Even though Kentucky’s point guard spot is largely occupied by seniors Lamont Butler and Kerr Kriisa, the Zags have the advantage at the point guard spot. There isn’t a single PG that has started the year better than Nembhard, and until he falters, I’ll keep putting my money on him.
Score prediction
95-90, Gonzaga. Barring the big Puget Sound earthquake decimating everyone while inside the arena, the only thing that can offset what should be an incredibly fun game to watch is an over-eager ref whistle.
This is a battle between two teams that compliment each other rather well. I’m giving Gonzaga the edge because it is the pseudo home game, and although Wildcat fans appear absolutely hecking everywhere in the most annoying way possible, this is Seattle we are talking about. Eighty/twenty Gonzaga/Kentucky crowd maximum.
That shouldn’t rattle the Wildcats too much. They are the fourth-most experienced team in all of college hoops. They are basically a bunch of seniors who transferred to Kentucky and you don’t transfer to Kentucky if you are afraid of noise.
Gonzaga has a different level of experience, however. The Zags have played together forever. Kentucky hasn’t. That is the biggest check box for Gonzaga in a game of largely equals.