Following the 76-73 loss to the UConn Huskies in Seattle, the Gonzaga Bulldogs fell to 8-3 on the season and an overall KenPom ranking of No. 19 — the lowest mark in recent history since 2016.
So far, the parallels between that Gonzaga team and this year’s team have a few similarities. That doesn’t necessarily mean we can gleam anything concrete here, but it also isn’t anything to completely ignore either.
A trip down memory lane
The Zags opened the 2015-16 season as the preseason No. 9 team in the nation. The Kevin Pangos era was over and the team was in the hands of a freshman 2.0 Josh Perkins, complimented by sophomore Silas Melson in the backcourt.
The chatter was all about the frontcourt, however. The Zags had high hopes for a three-headed monster of sorts, led by a senior Kyle Wiltjer, a sophomore Domantas Sabonis, and a senior Przemek Karnowski. Arguably, the Zags had the top front court in the nation.
The backcourt was untested. A senior Kyle Draginis filled in on the wing and a senior Eric McClellan helped spell some time at the point. A short rotation, but a rather talented one.
Things would go off the rails almost immediately. Mark Few struggled to figure out how to get his hydra frontcourt working seamlessly together. After five games, it wouldn’t matter. Karnowski would go down with a season-ending back injury, and a depleted Gonzaga roster played the rest of the season with paper-thin depth.
The Zags lost a close one to Texas A&M, beat a mediocre UConn team, lost to Arizona and UCLA at home, and entered conference play at 8-3. The Zags would lose to BYU (home), Saint Mary’s (away), Southern Methodist (away), and Saint Mary’s (home) to finish the season 23-7. They were firmly on the wrong side of the bubble.
The only win worth noting for Gonzaga was over UConn, who would be a No. 9 seed in the NCAA Tournament that year. Not exactly a resume that gets a job. Gonzaga needed to win the WCC Tournament (which they did) to guarantee a spot in the NCAA Tournament. They earned a No. 11 seed, tied for the lowest seeding since the 2010-11 squad.
Success still arrived in 2016
Despite all of that, the Zags still made a statement in the NCAA Tournament. Running basically a six-man rotation at that point, the Zags absolutely rolled a No. 6 Seton Hall squad in the first round, 68-52.
The second round featured a much-hyped matchup between Domantas Sabonis and No. 3 Utah’s Jakob Poeltl. The Utes weren’t even in the game from tip-off. Gonzaga advanced to the Sweet 16 after demolishing Utah 82-59.
As the KenPom win probability chart in the embedded tweet above also suggests, the Zags were a late-game meltdown away from a second-straight trip to the Elite Eight. We don’t need to go into details of why they lost to Syracuse.
Ok. So what?
Looking at the two squads, there are some obvious similarities right off the bat. Both the 2016 team and this year’s team have roster issues. 2016’s was a complete lack of front court depth. This year, it is the backcourt. Early-season injuries exacerbated both teams’ depth issues.
The non-conference schedule didn’t grant the necessary statement wins for a high seeding. That year, Gonzaga had absolutely none. At least this year, the Zags have two more chances at Quad 1 victories with San Diego State at home and Kentucky on the road.
The WCC was a down year in both seasons. In 2016, Saint Mary’s and BYU were NIT-bound. With BYU out of the conference and Saint Mary’s non-conference stumbles, it is probably going to be another one-bid WCC year.
This is a lot of words that still don’t have a point.
And the overall point is that despite all of what was lined up against it, the 2016 Zags still salvaged their season, played well above their seeding line, and overall, succeeded.
This season, yes, the loss at Washington was disappointing, however, it is still a Quad 1 loss. Purdue and UConn are currently ranked No. 2 and 3, respectively, in KenPom, and very well could be facing each other in the national championship game.
Some people in the fanbase can’t find solace in the idea that sometimes, a team is just better than we are. To that, I ask what is even the point of tuning in?
Despite all of the “letdowns”, that 2016 season still featured some ridiculously splashy games by a senior Wiltjer. Sabonis literally played himself to the No. 11 pick in the 2016 NBA Draft.
If the ultimate end-all goal for viewing is to watch a victory then you aren’t actually watching college basketball. You aren’t actually rooting for Gonzaga. You are so focused on the binary result of a game that you are ignoring every little storyline, every little step, and the progress that comes through the season. Part of being a fan is to take the good with the bad–and let’s be completely honest here, the “bad” for Gonzaga has not been bad whatsoever.