In the world of journalism, there is something known as Betteridge’s Law of Headlines, which basically states that any headline which ends in a question mark can be answered by the word “no”. The point of this is that if the question could be answered by the word “yes”, then the headline would reflect that as a statement. Example given: “Gonzaga has a realistic chance against UConn.”
I don’t believe the Zags do, however, given what we have seen so far at this point in the season. Of course it is not impossible–stranger things have happened in college basketball after all. But if I were a betting man, I would not be placing too much money on Gonzaga coming out ahead on Friday evening.
Tristen Newton is playing like an All-American
The senior point guard for UConn is putting up some gaudy numbers so far: 17 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 6.1 assists per game. He already would be a handful to deal with based on skill alone, but when you throw in the fact he is a 6’5, 200 lb guard, things get a bit trickier.
Ryan Nembhard is maybe 6’0 tall with shoes on. He will have his hands full on the offensive end trying to break free from Newton’s grasp. On the defensive end, when Mark Few was presented with a similar size differential against USC and Isaiah Collier, he opted to give Dusty Stromer some reps at containment.
The only issue there is that across from Stromer is Cam Spencer, a senior averaging 15.8 points per game who shoots 45.6 percent from three this season. UConn has so many talented weapons that just one lockdown defender will not cut it.
Gonzaga’s offense does not match up well with UConn’s defense
The Huskies’ defense is exceptional (top 25 or higher) at three things: two-point percentage (40.7 – No. 7 in the country), block percentage (15.6 – No. 13) and limiting offensive rebounds (22.4 – No. 12).
Gonzaga has not established itself as a consistent three-point shooting team. Although Nolan Hickman has been trending in the right direction as of late, the team’s two best three-pointers based on percentages are Braden Huff (47.6) and Ben Gregg (42.9). Nembhard (19.4) and Stromer (31) are just not there yet.
This means that the Zags have relied on two points an inordinate amount of the time in games. Nearly 58 percent of Gonzaga’s points are two-pointers, good for the 32nd-highest mark in the country.
With Donovan Clingan roaming the post like the 7’2 monster he is, UConn makes life obviously difficult near the hoop. We watched Gonzaga attempt to solve a similar problem against Purdue and Zach Edey by launching up a season-high 32 threes and it just did not go well at all. If the UConn defense is dictating how the Zags’ offense plays, this game is over before it already began.
UConn has the rebounding edge
One of the brightest spots on the Zags season has been the offensive rebounding, which sits at an OR% of 38.0, good for No. 14 in the country. Graham Ike has led the charge (17.1 – 14th best) followed by Ben Gregg and Anton Watson.
For a team that grinds out wins, these extra possessions are more than necessary. It is a pretty clear correlation that the two lowest OR% games for the Zags this season are against Washington and Purdue. Against a team like UConn, they can be the difference between a win and another loss.
The issue is that UConn’s defense is great at rebounding. If the Zags cannot maintain an edge on the offensive boards, it makes the game that much harder to win.
So why tune in at all if the game is that hopeless?
Because do you think I honestly have anything better to do with my Friday nights?
All kidding aside, UConn’s non-conference schedule has been a bit deceptive. They stand at 9-1 but six of those wins are from the likes of Northern Arizona, Stonehill, Mississippi Valley State, Manhattan, New Hampshire, and Arkansas Pine Bluff, aka Quadrant 4 teams.
They lost a close one to Kansas on the road, which is as good of a loss as any human being can imagine. The win over North Carolina looks alright, considering North Carolina also lost to Villanova, which also lost to Penn. The 10-point win over Texas is great. Texas is also 0-2 in Quad 1 games and 7-0 in Quad 4 games for a 7-2 season record.
KenPom currently ranks UConn’s non-conference strength of schedule as No. 311 in the country. Of course, you can’t use that citation and ignore the fact that UConn’s AdjEM is 5.39 points higher than Gonzaga’s. There is a good reason why UConn is favored, but nothing is set in stone.
Fun fact: The difference between No. 4 UConn and No. 13 Gonzaga is the same between No. 13 Gonzaga and No. 31 Florida.
Instead, the whole point of this article can be summed up in the following sentence: Because Gonzaga is playing one of the top teams in the nation, they will have to play one of their best games of the season to come away with a win.
That is how it works when you aren’t the top-ranked team anymore.