The Gonzaga Bulldogs are off to Hawaii for the absolutely-loaded Maui Invitational, and they have their toughest draw of the entire season right off the get-go: Zach Edey and Purdue.
The Zags have plenty to worry about, as this is largely the exact same Purdue team that thoroughly dismantled Gonzaga last season in Portland, 84-66. In that game, Gonzaga hopped out to a quick 10-minute lead and Purdue took over for the final 30, a score that seemed closer than the game ever actually felt.
Considering Purdue returns 83.8 percent of its minutes played and 86.6 percent of its scoring from last season, there is a very good reason Gonzaga enters this game as the underdog.
No team is invincible, however. And despite the fact that Edey is nearly a half-foot taller than any other Zag on the roster, there is a path to victory. It requires a lot of hard work on Gonzaga’s end and some bounces to go their way as well.
Purdue struggled from three consistently last year
Through three games this season, Purdue is shooting 46.3 percent from three. Last season, that was not the case. The Boilermaker’s young guards were incredibly inconsistent from three-point range, and that was an issue throughout the entire season.
In Purdue’s six losses last season, the Boilermakers shot 24 percent from long range. On the flip side, the opposing winning teams (not including Northwestern’s 4-for-22 three-point effort in their win), went 29-for-73, nearly 40 percent.
It seems like a no-brainer to say Gonzaga needs to shoot well from three to win the game, but the real key is that the Zags need to make it difficult for Purdue to get open looks from afar. Edey is going to eat, no matter what Gonzaga throws at him. In Purdue’s six losses last season, Edey did not struggle. It was the rest of the team that did.
Make Edey run
As someone who also has long legs, that doesn’t necessarily make one a fast runner. Edey might be 7’4, but he also weighs nearly 300 pounds. Calling him fleet of foot would be a slight misnomer.
Last season, the Zags posted tempos of 80, 72, 74, 76, and 73 leading up to their game against Purdue. When Gonzaga hit the Boilermakers wall, Purdue absolutely dictated the tempo. The Zags had just 67 possessions in the game. That would set and later be tied as the lowest mark of the season until the second-to-last game against Saint Mary’s.
Gonzaga has to push the tempo when on offense because every possession that does not involve Edey properly set up in the post is infinitely easier. By sheer size alone, he will make all shots around the rim more difficult. The easiest way to get those good looks close to the hoop? Score while Edey is still jogging down the court.
Play your best basketball for 40 minutes
We haven’t been in a space for quite some time as Gonzaga fans, but the reality of the times is Gonzaga will just need to play better basketball for 40 minutes. That means making open shots. That means not missing rotations. That means hustling harder on the offensive and defensive glass.
That was the blueprint for beating Gonzaga in 2020-21: Be perfect for 40 minutes. Now, Purdue, by the way the metrics tell the story, is not nearly as dominant as that Zags squad, but the same idea applies. Gonzaga is the underdog for a very good reason on Monday. Underdogs need to play above their level combined with a bit of a downward swing by their opponent to pull off that upset.
For Gonzaga, that means they need a lot more out of Nolan Hickman, Ryan Nembhard, and Dustry Stromer from the outside. Stromer has been fine, but Hickman (18.2 percent) and Nembhard (25 percent) have left plenty to be desired from three.
On the interior, it will be a different question. Braden Huff, Anton Watson, and Graham Ike have been feasting, but Yale and Eastern Oregon do not have Zach Edey. How do they respond to a much larger presence in the post? We probably shouldn’t expect them to collectively go 80 percent from the field in a victory.
It won’t be easy, but it is more than possible. And important as well. A win over Purdue gives Gonzaga theoretical shots at Tennessee and Marquette or Kansas. A loss sends Gonzaga to the wrong side of the bracket, and might just result in games against Syracuse and UCLA instead.