For the past decade, the Zags have consistently been one of the top teams in college basketball. Each year, they lose big pieces, gain bigger pieces, and make a push toward that theoretically inevitable national championship.
After a “disappointing” season last year, the Zags saw one of the biggest departures from the squad through NBA dreams and the transfer portal. Drew Timme, Julian Strawther, Rasir Bolton, and Malachi Smith all opted for the professional game. Dominick Harris, Efton Reid, and Hunter Sallis all left to boost their college profile elsewhere.
It is a big and challenging rebuilding year for the Mark Few and company. The Zags return only three major/minor contributors from last year’s squad: Anton Watson, Nolan Hickman, and Ben Gregg. All great players in their own rights, but not exactly dominant forces within their respective positions.
Too early preseason top 25 lists have pretty consistently put the Zags as high as the top 10. That is too high. That isn’t to say that the Bulldogs aren’t going to have successes this year, but after five-plus years of riding that No. 1 line throughout the season, as a fanbase, we should be prepared for something a bit more grounded. Here is why:
Gonzaga lost too much
By the very nature of college sports and the fact that players are limited to four/five years of playing, sometimes, all of the stars align in the wrong direction. No offense to the likes of all the newcomers, but the Zags lost Timme, one of the best Zags ever, Strawther, NBA talent, Bolton, an experienced shooter, Malachi Smith, the WCC 6th Man of the Year, and Hunter Sallis, the team’s best defender by a mile.
The coaching staff did the best they could with a chaotic portal. They landed one of the top PG transfers in Ryan Nembhard, added a solid big man in Graham Ike, and a good shooter in Steele Venters. Combined with the addition of top 50 recruit Dusty Stromer, they are good pieces.
Are they better than the total of what Gonzaga lost? Easy and short answer: No. That isn’t to say that all of those pieces can’t help the Zags succeed at the level we are used to in the following season. But for the 2023-24 year? It just isn’t enough considering what Gonzaga lost.
Talented, yet unproven players, galore
At it’s core, this is why Gonzaga is going to be fun to watch, but also a lot more frustrating than in previous years. Only six of the Zags players have seen minutes on the floor.
If you run with a starting rotation of Nembhard, Hickman, Venters, Ike, and Watson, that is definitely a top 15 team. Little Ben Gregg as your sixth man is great. After that, all of Gonzaga’s contributions will have to come from players who need to step up
Dusty Stromer, Luka Krajnovic, Jun Seok Yeo, and Braden Huff all very well could be invaluable pieces in the future, but at least one of those players, if not two, will have to become meaningful contributors immediately.
If there is any reason to not go all in on this Gonzaga squad, this is the key point. It would be one thing if the youth were all projected as NBA Lottery picks. They aren’t. College sports is just as much about growth as anything else. There will be growth moments and learning curves, and that all has to happen immediately in the non-conference so Gonzaga can notch those high-profile wins to offset the WCC slate (more on this later).
The backcourt is paper-thin
Again, this is not the coaching staff’s fault. High-level high school recruits take time to land. The transfer portal is insane. Gonzaga was in on guys that didn’t come to fruition. That is part of the process.
As it stands, Gonzaga’s roster is unbalanced in a way that any opposing coaching staff will be able to identify. Currently, the Zags have just four guards on the squad: Hickman, Nembhard, Stromer, and the newest international recruit, Luka Krajnovic.
The Zags list Steele Venters as a guard on the roster portion of the website, but that is being generous. He will end up playing the three spot for much of his time.
That means the Zags will have to rely heavily on Nembhard and Hickman for minutes. Hickman, notably, had a rather inconsistent sophomore season. To a certain extent, he is also an unproven commodity. Put frankly, the backcourt situation is not something one wants to see on a team with championship aspirations.
The nature of Gonzaga makes the non-conference too important
There are a few things that assist in making a deep NCAA Tournament run and one of those is a high seed. For Gonzaga, by nature of how the team exists in the WCC, we know how this song and dance works: Load up those high-profile wins in the non-conference; ride that high through the conference without dropping a game to anyone other than Saint Mary’s; win the WCC Tournament; rinse and repeat.
We can use Saint Mary’s last season as a prime example. The Gaels were good, ranked, and the metrics were high on them (No. 13 by KenPom). However, by not going bonkers with high-quality wins in the non-conference, the ceiling was a five-seed.
For the Zags, if they drop early opportunities and do fine in the conference, they will end up as a No. 4/5 seed. This matters greatly. Number 1 seeds historically have made the Sweet 16 85.1 percent of the time and the Elite Eight 68.2 percent of the time.
As the above chart shows, the odds drop significantly as the seed gets lower. That makes total sense. As a No. 4/5 seed, your theoretical Sweet 16 matchup is the No. 1 seed.
All of this isn’t to say there isn’t a chance for the Zags to have success. I did write something stating quite the opposite as well. Most likely, the season will progress somewhere between the two posts. Either way, it is going to be a bit different than what Gonzaga Nation has become accustomed to witnessing.
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