We are less than 24 hours from Selection Sunday, and it seems that the fate of the No. 5 Gonzaga Bulldogs has already been sealed by the No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys, at least according to the national narrative.
That tracks, specifically because the big talking heads in the media have displayed a complete inability to discuss Gonzaga as anything but the best team or the worst team this year, and McNeese State has a lot of things going for it that people love to cite: A long win streak, a team that forces turnovers, and a formerly disgraced Power 5 head coach rejuvenating a mid major to clear his name (Will Wade).
This is a Gonzaga blog, however, so unless I am writing about the clear reasons why Gonzaga will lose to a much better team, I’m not going to throw in the towel and think they will lose to a worse team. And that is what McNeese State is.
McNeese’s State 30-3 record is a bit inflated
The Cowboys are running the nation’s third-longest win streak at 11 games, and that is no doubt impressive. They haven’t lost since February 3, at Southeastern Louisiana.
The Southland Conference was ranked No. 28 out of the 33 conferences by KenPom’s standings. The highest ranked team the Cowboys played was their opening season win against VCU. Otherwise, their average opponent KenPom ranking for the season is approximately 240, and that isn’t including the four (!!!) non-D1 opponents the Cowboys played during the non-conference slate, including the Mississippi University for Women and the College of Biblical Studies.
Their defense gets steals but it will still have its hands full stopping Gonzaga’s offense
One of the key metrics that will be cited often for why McNeese State will upset Gonzaga is their turnover percentage of 23.1 percent, good for No. 6 in the nation. They trot out a press more often than not. No matter what, Ryan Nembhard and Nolan Hickman will have to be on their A Game in taking care of the ball.
But beyond that number, there are a couple of stats that are pretty eye-opening:
- Opponents shoot 48.1 percent from three, the lowest mark in the nation
- McNeese State’s defense allows an assist on 57.9 percent of opponents’ made baskets, ranked No. 332 in the nation
Gonzaga has never been a great three-point shooting team this season, and they have a pretty low baseline success. Gonzaga hasn’t lost a game this season in which they’ve shot a mere 30 percent from long range. So if the Zags get a bit of a lift from McNeese State and drain some threes, this game is over for the Cowboys.
It is that second bullet point that would be the one to cite more: McNeese State doesn’t really stop a team from getting into its offense. They basically steal the ball or bust on defense. If Gonzaga is able to handle the Cowboy’s press, they’ll settle into their offense, which, since February 1 (even with the two losses to Saint Mary’s) has been ranked No. 3 in the nation according to Bartorvik.com.
Can McNeese State’s offense generate enough to keep up
A bit weirdly, the Cowboys are an elite three point shooting team, hitting 39.4 percent as a team–the seventh-highest mark in the nation. However, 33.6 of their overall field goal attempts come from three, just No. 275 in the nation. This is a team that is great at shooting threes but just doesn’t really focus on them on the nightly.
Rather, it is to the free throw line galore. Senior Shahada Wells and junior Christian Shumate are each great at drawing fouls, but only Wells can convert at the line. In fact, 20.4 percent of the Cowboys’ points this season have come from the free throw line, but the team shoots just 69.5 percent overall.
Gonzaga’s defense on the interior has been solid this season. Teams shoot just 45.1 percent inside the arc on the Bulldogs, the 13th-lowest mark in the nation.
Gonzaga wins if
They protect the ball and hit some threes. The game could get ugly if that is the case. Ryan Nembhard is probably one of the best press breakers in the nation due to his ability to get down the court so quickly.
If Gonzaga is able to effectively get the PnR game going between Nembhard and Ike again, then whatever points rain down from afar will just be free money.
McNeese State wins if
The Gonzaga guards can never settle into the offensive game plan and the Cowboys generate just enough free buckets on turnovers to win.
Very good article! It just makes me wonder if the Gonzaga bulldogs have really established an identity due to their inconsistencies. I guess we will just have to see what Gonzaga team shows up.
I think they have. Even with the losses to Saint Mary’s, they’ve been one of the better teams in college hoops with one of the best offenses in the nation for the past two months.
Gaudy stats are easy to generate playing inferior opponents.